All About HAT

Article
OutputIntern

6 months ago by OutputIntern

HAT was one of the very first tickers to show on the RelayX frontpage. It is owned by Aaron who runs the website www.bsv.guru. The HAT ticker was bought at the starting price of the Dutch-style auction for 10 BSV. It ties to a token contract of the same name that represents five different Twetch Rare Hats, split into 1,000,000 tokenised pieces.

The five rare hats are #5, #10, #20, #41 and #45. Each one with a mint condition physical rare hat. Aaron details this himself here.

Analysis

Most HAT tokens have been listed at a price of 0.0008 BSV (80,000 sats) each. There are 1 million tokens, meaning if all sold that would give Aaron 800 BSV. If we divide that by the 5 hats, he is effectively selling each hat for 160 BSV each. At current BSV price, that is roughly $29,600 per rare hat.

However on the HAT token sale page it reads, “$HAT redemption wallet will receive 50 % of the revenue from the sale of Twetch Rare Hat #5, #10, #20, #41 and #45 and the associated physical items when they get sold through the Twetch market.

Meaning that for HAT token holders to breakeven, the five hats will need to be sold for a total of 1,600 BSV, or 320 BSV each (~$59,200), before HAT token holders break even.

Depending on when you redeem however, this figure might be lower. The later you redeem the larger the relative percentage you get, as every redeeming token is burnt. The redemption process starts on the first rare hat sale, so if a HAT token were to be redeemed at that point, they would not benefit from the sale of the four remaining rare hat sales. They would however be increasing the relative % of what remaining HAT token holders will receive.

Comparisons

On the Twetch marketplace, the current cheapest rare hat for sale is #58 for 25.92 BSV (~$4795). There are 3 others for sale in the 25-30 BSV price range.

When compared to what each of the five rare hats under HAT are effectively selling for, HAT holders are paying a steep premium. The benefit however is you can buy as little as $0.15 worth.

Sales of HAT have been slow but somewhat consistent - usually less than $100 per day in volume over the last two months. The ATH volume was around $400 worth of sales.

Aaron also did a giveaway of HAT tokens which was a smart way to get more exposure and awareness.

Cornering the Rare Hat Market

Aaron owns the five rare hats with physical. But he also owns two additional rare hats - #13 and #74. Meaning Aaron has around 7% of the entire rare hat supply. And he has publicly stated he will not be selling the 5 rare hats under HAT for these minimum prices:

Rare Hat #5 - $2,000,000
Rare Hat #10 - $999,999
Rare Hat #20 - $499,999
Rare Hat #41 - $109,999
Rare Hat #45 - $99,999

In a future where Twetch has millions of users, it’s probably likely that rare hats will sell for more than $59,200 each. Aaron already holds 7% of the supply. Rare hats #1-#4 are held by the Twetch founders which is unlikely to ever be sold. Quite a few others have already opened and worn the physical hat, which might bring a premium for mint condition rare hats.

Twetch currently has around 50,000 users. Given the lowest price of a rare hat on the marketplace is $4795, a big jump from the initial $100-$400 sale prices at IHO (Initial Hat Offering). If Twetch were to get to 500,000 users, 5 million users, 50 million users - what would the rare hats be worth then?

Outperforming BSV

It is Output Intern’s belief however that given the current premium paid, buying HAT tokens using BSV will not bring a gain in BSV terms. Unless the BSV ecosystem stalls and Twetch is the only company booming to millions of users. However looking at it in USD terms, buying HAT tokens can make sense.

The bet here if you buy HAT tokens using BSV terms instead of USD is that BSV will not go to $2,318 per coin before all five rare hats will sell at their minimum prices listed above.

While HAT tokens are only available to be sold via BSV, it would be simple to re-buy any BSV using USD immediately after spending them on HAT.

Resource Links

About Aaron

Aaron introduced himself on the second Bitcoin’s Got Talent as a wordpress websites for small businesses. His Twetch bio also reads that he has been a miner and a trader. He created the Hashbet.app and his bsv.guru website has several helpful resources to learn more about the BSV space.

About Twetch Rare Hats

In February 2021, Twetch announced Bitcoin’s first NFT - 101 individually numbered rare hats, that had an NFT and a physical hat together. You can read my thread on this for more information.

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If you would like your token analysed, you can buy TXLC to redeem for a report