HISTORICAL PRECEDENT as lie-detector test
Dedicated to the mothers of invention
Who work thru adversity & lovingly devote themselves to their children’s enlightenment
History repeats itself.
This occurs because there’s so much history, yet human nature doesn’t change much. There’s a LOT more homosapien history than it seems, simply by the numbers: Graecopithicus is a 7 million year old humanoid fossil dated to a time period right after homosapiens evolutionarily split away from the chimps. Maybe it was comparatively hairier and literally dumb, but when Graecopithicus was alive it likely felt love, hate, rivalry, jealousy, vanity, happiness, and drive to be great just like many of us now. Through these emotions and social similarities our species simply hasn’t changed much and will recreate common themes– aka repeat history.
If history repeats, then so does technological innovation
While history may repeat, it’s never QUITE the same. Technology, for one thing, improves, and we build on top of the inventions of brilliant men before our time. The Greeks rowed their boats, the Spanish sailed their ships, and the Americans steamed ships with iron cladding and even birthed the first submarine, but no matter the level of shipwright technology, naval war battles were fought from these platforms causing death at sea for many young men. Which millenia it was hardly mattered, the end result was similar. Change is constant; however, constant is human nature. Lucky for us, while mistakes are repeated due to commonality of personal interaction, technology doesn’t care who did what or why. Good technology doesn’t care about the inventor’s political bent, nor philosophy, religion, number of children, countenance, university degree, disposition, popularity or relationship with the king.
Look deeply for patterns
There’s SO much human history, it provides us all with one of the greatest tools for seeing TRUTH in our present times. Whenever presented with what might seem an impossible unfamiliar situation, we can simply look backwards for HISTORICAL PRECEDENT. Finding historical precedent makes things which are seemingly impossible possible. Armed with historical precedent, a person can see truth before the pack and this is called leadership. Leadership is needed to reverse any cycle that’s gone too far. Leadership is also very profitable, for those who can stomach going against the herd.
The most important root in the phrase ‘historical precedent’ is history. History is simply stories, and stories weren’t always tied to books. Books are a modern invention, and before their existence all stories were transmitted by campfire– by word of mouth. Look no further than the Bible. It might be a collection of old wise tales by men who had learned valuable lessons and wished to impart these lessons on their young, but you can bet the stories of Noah or Moses were long told orally before they were written down. Humankind separated from the other species by these old valuable stories– no matter the form, and papyrus & electronic computer networks have only made historical precedent MORE accessible. Never has it been easier to assemble historical precedent to what might be happening today, but technology does have its downsides.
Clutter [https://sym.re/4rniDjH ] is one problem which is less understood, sometimes we miss precedents hiding in plain sight simply because there is too much data. This is a shame, a tragedy of the commons caused by the internet agreeing to store so much for so little, and a perfect example of this massive problem can be found in Google search [fig 1]. Not many people get past the first page of search results, and what if that first page has a homogenous perspective? Clutter is solved by limitation, which forces valuation analysis. Narrowing stories down to the most important biggest themes is helpful, and in this case maybe just one story will do the trick?
Fig 1: 21 THOUSAND results for this slang word? (AND Google’s main search return isn’t even right!) Is this really needed?
Censure is the other problem which thanks to Cambridge Analytica is increasingly making headlines. Again we turn to Google search and NOT in a good way. [fig 2: below] A single company’s culture can be quite polarized, not to mention a company which sits in a monoculture like SilliCON Valley, inside a state like California with outlier views. Strong cultures are actually ideal for companies, but maybe a platform with a heavy bias isn’t the best candidate to control a monopolistic 90% of internet search traffic? But even if Google vouched zealous adherence to fairness and free speech in search, don’t forget that large companies contribute a massive portion of Google’s revenues and thus have unequal influence over search results which go against their business. There’s a reason why many search return pages have sponsored results at the tip top and why sponsored results sometimes hog the ENTIRE visible screen. Oink Oink!
There IS a cure for these two problems, and it begins with the letters “SL” and just a single penny per search, but that’s a wordy story for another day. It is the intention of this article to do work for you, to pinpoint, not clutter or censure, historical precedent examples you can use in present times to gain a better perspective. While giving you some easy examples in short form, the main target is a single prescient [https://sym.re/AoCEce1 ] true story from over 100 years ago which can help clarify BitCoin’s PERSONAL roots.
Fig 2: Google gets > 90% of revenues from advertisements from companies like large pharmaceutical companies who don’t take kindly to concepts like illness PREVENTION & CHEAP natural remedies.
History is stored for a REASON
The great thing about the human brain is its bounded nature– only so much historical information can sit in it without leaking out as new information is processed. It’s self-cleaning, or if you prefer some coder-speak: the brain has great “garbage collection” by necessity. Before modern technology, our species relied on stories to tell our greatest lessons but only the BEST stories survived as each person’s brain was a “Node” and conversation was the knowledge-transfer transactions of the collective brain.
Don’t build below the flood line. Fukishima residents take note.
Listen to “the crazy ones”. Steve Jobs knew they provided the alternative wisdom to “common sense”
Understand BOTH classes of people to effect the greatest outcomes. Jack in “Titanic” parties with 3rd class below-decks & with first class on the main deck.
Study nature (Moses understood freakish low-tides in the Red Sea & lightning-induced forest fires better than any Egyptian soldier chasing his flock) and science.
Deploy, not bury, your talents.
From small seed comes greatness.
Look like a teaching from the Buddhist canon?
Seek RECENCY to maximize believability
These stories are quite old, the newest of the three 2,000 years old. Noah is a great story for instance, but how relatable is it to modern times? What if there were lessons from a more modern story? For any type of modern story, find the most recent to have a bigger impact. How about Moses’s tablets AND Noah’s flood in a story within the last 100 years?
Lessons written in stone
Do you think Fukishima’s recent tsunami which caused the greatest environmental accident in world history was a “rogue wave” ordered by aliens, or fate, or the Gods? Did the world seem to single-out only your generation for this rare weather-induced catastrophe? The answer is no. In fact, the rogue wave which caused so much damage was simply on a very long schedule– a cycle which exceeds the typical human lifespan. All you had to do, to go from being shocked by the event to PLANNING like Noah for this rogue wave event, was hike up the local hills of the prefecture and read the stones onto which long-ago wiser men like Moses wrote warnings IN STONE…
Aneyoshi Tablet ~1896 says: “Remember the calamity of the great tsunamis. Do not build any homes (or UN-insured nuclear reactors?) below this point.” 
How quickly society UNLEARNS the lessons of our past! There are many historical doppelganger stories from our past on even longer cycles (like Civil Wars or 2nd-Sun theories) which stretch into the tens of thousands and even millions of years, but this Fukishima lesson is from “just” 120 years ago and it’s literally written in STONE. Do not build any homes below this point.
Even in something like equity analysis, the technique of “historical precedent” can be used over and over again to identify superior companies EARLY. Into these companies one can invest serious capital for outsized alpha-generating multi-year gains. A perfect example was an investment in Snapchat in 2017 at $13 which had almost every public writer in financial & social media as well as many talkative Wall Streeters fully committed against it. All claimed (and most even continue to claim– despite SNAP’s faster rise against the Finstagram beast) it was impossible for Snapchat to match up against giants. But had you known AltaVista, Yahoo and Goto.com preceded the success of Google search, and Friendster and MySpace preceded the success of Facebook, you’d have recognized a pattern that product improvement doesn’t stop just because a single entity has made lots of money. It stops when one company has displayed MASTERY in a sector.
TWO WRIGHTS DON’T MAKE A WRONG
Going back in history for precedent: Has anyone ever created a fantastic invention which elevated human history forever, and yet went unrecognized for YEARS?
What is the historical precedent for why so many smart people have been duped into believing Doctor Craig S. Wright is a fraud?
Corollary: Has anyone made massive grandiose claims about being the inventor of an incredible technology to the entire world and been proven a phony? Most fraud-operators find “marks”, or suckers. A mark is labelled as such because the perpetrator is MARKING gullible people who can be fooled. Fraudsters don’t typically make their claims to the entire earth’s peoples all at once, as this would vastly increase the chances of being caught AND increase the penalty when caught.
This article is the story of three men inventing in a cloud of doubt, greed, and misunderstanding. It’s a story about how great things can happen right in front of our face & yet we miss it– BADLY– in a cacophony of ignorance and willful deceit. History repeats itself, but some see it coming and lead from it.
If only history could slap us in the face and explain “YOUR times just aren’t so unbelievable, little man.”
Que the music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPgS26ZhqZs
Many witnesses at Kittyhawk in 1903 yet the Wrights were still called frauds on page 1 news headlines 5 years later, and the US government & military expressed SO little interest in the Wrights’ legendary accomplishment they took it to FRANCE!